By Jackson Posey | Sports Writer
It’s time to retire the RVO.
Baylor football offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes’ patented “Reliable Violent Offense” led the Bears to new heights in his first year in 2021, culminating in a Big 12 championship and a Sugar Bowl victory. But with a new-look offensive line and running back room — and six games of data — it’s clear the Bears need to make a change.
Texas Tech entered the game as the 83rd-ranked rushing defense in the country, allowing 148.0 rushing yards per game against a schedule that includes a Group of Five team (Wyoming), an FCS team (Tarleton State) and Houston, who might as well be one too (the Cougars rank 95th in rushing offense). Three of the Red Raiders’ four FBS opponents set then-season highs in rushing yards.
And yet they bodied Baylor’s offensive line.
Through three quarters, Baylor's RVO offense has 30 yards on 27 carries. Twenty-three of those belong to Dominic Richardson.
Texas Tech's rushing defense is ranked 83rd in the nation. They're allowing 148.0 rush YPG to a schedule that includes Wyoming and Tarleton State.
— Jackson Posey ✞ (@ByJacksonPosey) October 8, 2023
The Bears’ rushing attack was held to just 17 yards on 30 carries — their lowest total since the 2015 Cotton Bowl. That game saw Bryce Petty sacked six times, and the Bears still managed 603 passing yards and 41 points.
Crazy stat: Baylor rushed 30 times for 17 yards (0.6 AVG) tonight against Texas Tech. It's just the third sub-100-yd performance of the Jeff Grimes era, and the Bears' worst rushing performance since Bryce Petty was sacked six times in the 2015 Cotton Bowl against Michigan State.
— Jackson Posey ✞ (@ByJacksonPosey) October 8, 2023
This Red Raiders’ defense allowed 145 rushing yards against Tarleton State — which moved up to the FCS from Division II just three years ago — on 4 yards per carry. Baylor couldn’t scratch a tenth of that.
It’s been a sharp fall from grace for the Baylor offense, as it’s only two years removed from averaging over 220 ground yards per game. Less than a year ago, then-true freshman Richard Reese lit up the Big 12, setting the school’s freshman rushing record with 972 yards and 14 touchdowns. Now, the Bears have rushed for fewer than 2 yards per carry in two of the past three games amid a yearlong home losing streak against FBS teams.
Something has to give. Baylor is 1-4 against FBS opponents, with poor starts causing most of the damage; the Bears have been outscored 111-32 in the first half of those five games.
Redshirt junior quarterback Blake Shapen still managed to get his numbers. He’s completed 62.1% of his passes for 920 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions this season, which is the best three-game stretch of his career. And still, the offense struggled to consistently move the ball Saturday.
This has become a pass-first team. After two years of dominating offensive lines, that unit has become a liability. A rushing attack that ranked among the nation’s best has bottomed out at 3.4 yards per attempt. And even the team seems to be grasping for answers.
“I don’t know. I don’t think so,” junior wide receiver Monaray Baldwin said when asked whether the team quit during Saturday’s 39-14 loss to Texas Tech.
Monaray Baldwin paused when asked whether the team quit tonight:
"Um, I don't know. I don't think so."
Points out a few positives, including Blake Shapen, before saying "I don't know. I really don't know."
— Jackson Posey ✞ (@ByJacksonPosey) October 8, 2023
Head coach Dave Aranda acknowledged that the team has “a lot of improving to do” over the coming bye week, but at a certain point, it’s too little, too late. The Bears are 6-11 against FBS teams since the start of last season (including losing eight of the past nine) and will face a difficult path to bowl eligibility.
Many of the issues run deeper than a bye week can fix, but a few play-calling adjustments can go a long way. Run the up-tempo offense that worked against UCF. Get the ball in the hands of dynamic playmakers like Baldwin, Reese and junior wide receiver Ketron Jackson Jr. Air it out. Push the pile on fourth and short. This team has depth at the skill positions; lean into that advantage.
With Aranda just three losses from his third losing season in four years, going back to the same cisterns won’t work anymore. The easiest stretch of the season is coming up, with games at Cincinnati, versus Iowa State, versus Houston — and those three games are must-wins. This coaching staff needs to make some changes, and fast. If not, 2023 will go down as yet another lost season.
