By Josh Siatkowski | Staff Writer

In any sport, a loss is a chance to reflect.

But when a team as talented as Baylor (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) takes its third loss in seven games at the hands of its oldest rival, it warrants a longer look than usual.

Early in the fourth quarter of Baylor’s 42-36 loss to TCU (5-2, 2-2 Big 12), Trent Battle’s 65-yard rushing touchdown pulled the TCU lead from a touchdown to 14 points. As train whistles blew to celebrate, Baylor fans and players wanted nothing more than to rinse out that bad taste with an equally quick and explosive drive.

But when a string of lightning delays put Amon G. Carter Stadium on pause for a total of two hours and 16 minutes, all one could do was think about what a third loss would mean for the hopes of the season.

“[I’m] disappointed with the outcome,” head coach Dave Aranda said. “[I’m] disappointed with the execution coming off the bye week.”

While a drama-packed fourth quarter filled with three interceptions, a scoop-and-score touchdown and an onside kick recovery almost pushed the uneasy thoughts of disappointment aside, the final score forces fans to meet with reality.

Now 2-2 in conference play, the Bears’ chances at a Big 12 Championship appearance have regressed into long-shot territory. Baylor’s breakout season, which seemed imminent in early August, is not to be.

“You can say one thing, but you’ve got to do it at the end of the day,” redshirt junior wide receiver Josh Cameron said. “We’re a lot better than our record, but we’ve got to show what we’re about.”

Right now, however, the execution is lacking.

“We’ve got to play better, plain and simple,” redshirt junior linebacker Kyler Jordan said. “We’ve got to make the plays that were there to make.”

Two months ago, Baylor began its 2025 campaign on the heels of a six-game conference win streak. Pundits had Baylor finishing between fourth and sixth in the conference, and if you asked anyone in Waco, they’d tell you the Bears’ momentum could roll them right into AT&T Stadium for the Big 12 Championship game.

And that wasn’t just blind hope. After a successful transfer window added to the roster with the ninth-most returning starters in the nation, it made sense to say that Baylor football would only get better.

And while there were signs from the beginning that Baylor wasn’t picking up where it left off, many of those early signs could be brushed aside: the Auburn loss could be called a case of first-game jitters; Arizona State’s game-winning field goal was just an unlucky heartbreaker; and double-digit deficits to Kansas State and SMU are far less significant when the end result is a win.

But today, the late-game magic ran out too soon to soften the blow. The Bears lost, and they lost squarely. We’re circling the point where the only diagnosis left is the one you avoid for as long as you can: Baylor just might not be as good as we hoped. And that makes the game sting even more than a typical rivalry loss.

“They’re hurt right now,” Aranda said. “They wanted to win this game.”

With today’s loss, the path to the Big 12 Championship game is far narrower. There are 10 teams in the Big 12 with a superior or equal record to the Bears’, raising the question of whether the Bears might have to find a different definition of success than “conference title.”

But even if that’s the case, it doesn’t mean the team will give up. With five games remaining, Baylor isn’t mathematically eliminated from Big 12 contention, and they still have a chance to finish the season 9-3.

“The team believes, whatever the circumstances … that they’re going to win,” Aranda said. “What makes this team special is that they have that belief.”