By Jackson Posey | Sports Writer
It took four years for Scott Drew to pull Baylor’s offense from the dregs of the scandal (and resulting probation) that preceded his tenure as head coach.
In 2003-04, the Bears’ offense finished No. 274 nationally in scoring. Then No. 229, then back down to No. 294. Drew was 21-53 and coming off a four-win season marred by NCAA probations. But somehow, in 2006-07, he turned everything around.
Baylor’s offense exploded, improving by over 12 points per game from 63.2 to 75.3, to spring into the top 60 nationally behind star scoring performances from sophomores Curtis Jerrells, Kevin Rogers and Henry Dugat. And the program never looked back, topping 75 PPG in 10 of the 17 seasons since.
Twice in the past 50 years, Baylor has finished in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense. In 1984-85, Jim Haller’s blazing-hot Bears blitzed opponents to the tune of 81.8 points per game, sixth-best nationally, but it wasn’t enough to overcome a 277th-ranked defense that allowed 81.0 points per game. Baylor finished the year 11-17, eighth in the Southwest Conference, and Haller soon resigned following a probe into potential NCAA rules violations surrounding money and steroids.
The second time around went a little differently. Drew’s Bears followed up a Covid-shortened season with a national championship in 2020-21, riding the star guard trio of Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell (combined 46.6 PPG) to a sixth-place offensive finish at 82.9 points per game. They led the nation in three-point percentage (41.3%) and excelled on defense en route to a school-record 17.4 average point differential.
This year’s Bears are certainly better than Haller’s squad, whose leading scorer was a fourth-round NBA draft pick. (Today, the NBA Draft only has two rounds.) And it would be foolhardy to set their preseason expectations at the greatest season in school history. But offensively, they have the opportunity to surpass both.
The Bears rank seventh in KenPom’s preseason adjusted offensive efficiency rankings, and are one of two teams projected to have four “elite” three-point shooters. Guards Jayden Nunn, Langston Love, Jalen Celestine and Jeremy Roach are all projected to finish in at least the 90th percentile without accounting for potential freshman contributions from players like Robert O. Wright III.
Projecting freshman contributions is notoriously difficult, as is predicting how transfers will fit into a new scheme. But Baylor’s situation feels unique. Returning snipers Love (11.0 PPG, 48.0 3PT%) and Nunn (10.5 PPG, 43.9 3PT%) welcome Duke transfer Roach (14.0 PPG, 42.9 3PT%), Cal transfer Celestine (8.7 PPG, 44.0 3PT%) and Wright, a five-star recruit and former Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year who took and made threes at a high clip as a senior for Montverde Academy (FL).
By all accounts, this should be the best-spaced offense in the country, particularly when star Miami transfer Norchad Omier (17.0 PPG, 35.3 3PT%) bumps up to play small-ball center in Drew’s motion offense. That robust spacing will pay dividends for an inside-outside scheme perfectly built to emphasize the powerful driving skills of Omier and five-star freshman guard VJ Edgecombe, whose game-breaking athleticism shone at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament over the summer.
“Three true outcomes” have taken over the baseball world, with analytically-driven hitting coaches favoring the home run, walk and strikeout trifecta to a contact-based approach. Basketball is in the midst of an analytics revolution of its own: mid-range jumpers are disappearing in favor of another form of three-true outcomes: three-pointers, paint finishes and free throws.
James Harden is the poster child of this phenomenon: last season, the former midrange merchant took just 14.9% of his shots between 10 feet and the three-point line. Armed with a fleet of long-range weaponry, the Bears’ offense could look similar, with unbridled three-point shooters flying across the court around a pair of elite interior scorers.
Omier is one of the best big men in the country; Edgecombe is a projected top-five NBA Draft pick. But more important than the raw talent is the seemingly seamless fit between new personnel from across the country.
From New York to Miami to Berkeley, from fifth-year college starters to true freshmen, the only continuity in this new class of Baylor players is their fit within the greater schema of Drew’s offensive framework.
This year has a chance to be historic, for a number of reasons. But the record most likely to be broken revolves around putting the ball in the basket. Lord willing and the creek don’t rise, the Bears are perfectly set up for their best offensive season in over 50 years. And when a team puts the ball in the basket at that manic a pace, anything can happen.
