By Jeffrey Cohen | Sports Writer
It has been a tumultuous offseason for Baylor. The Bears lost multiple key players to the transfer portal and exhausted eligibility. They also lost multiple top recruits days before National Signing Day.
A promising incoming transfer class, led by former Florida quarterback DJ Lagway, has flashed some hope for Baylor as it tries to return to the postseason.
While the Bears could exceed expectations in the first half of the season, the gauntlet over the final three weeks will leave Baylor in a similar spot to 2025. The Bears will improve to 6-6 and become bowl eligible in 2026.
Week 1 vs Auburn (in Atlanta): Auburn 35, Baylor 13
Baylor opens the 2026 season with a neutral-site matchup against Auburn at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The second game in the home-and-home series was moved to a neutral site because of increased NIL opportunities for the Tigers.
While Auburn lost some big names to the transfer portal, including wide receivers Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr., the Tigers’ 12th-ranked portal class also adds names like former South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown and former Baylor running back Bryson Washington to revamp the roster. Auburn will look to take advantage of a navy-and-orange crowd and complete the two-game sweep of the Bears.
Week 2 vs Prairie View A&M: Baylor 45, Prairie View A&M 10
Baylor opens its home schedule against Prairie View A&M. The Bears should be able to cruise against the Panthers, who have to drive only two hours to play at McLane Stadium. The reigning SWAC champions will not have much of an answer for Lagway and the new offense in their first game in front of the Baylor faithful.
Week 3 vs Louisiana Tech: Baylor 30, Louisiana Tech 17
The Bears get an opportunity to finish the nonconference schedule with another winnable game. In the second leg of a three-game home stand, Baylor will face off against Louisiana Tech, which capped off its 8-5 season in 2025 with an Independence Bowl win over Coastal Carolina. The Bulldogs lost leading running back Clay Thevenin to Rutgers but retain starting quarterback Blake Baker and leading receiver Eli Finley. While they will keep the game close, Baylor will still find a way to win after a slow start and go into Big 12 play at 2-1.
Week 4 vs Colorado: Baylor 28, Colorado 20
Baylor rides into its conference opener on a two-game win streak, though it is against an FCS and Group of Six team. Luckily for the Bears, they will take on Colorado, who finished 3-9 last season. While the Buffs lost five-star offensive tackle Jordan Seaton and receivers Dre’lon Miller (now at Baylor) and Omarion Miller, they currently boast the No. 22 transfer portal class in the country. Baylor can take advantage of a defense that allowed 30.5 points per game in 2025 and an offense that lacked a solid option at quarterback, with Kaidon Salter throwing for only 1,414 yards.
Week 5 at Arizona State: Arizona State 35, Baylor 16
Arizona State handed Baylor a crushing 27-24 loss in the Bears 2025 conference opener on a game-winning field goal as time expired. Following the Sun Devils’ 8-5 season, quarterback Sam Leavitt entered the portal as the No. 1 transfer in the nation, along with starting running back Raleek Brown (now at Texas). Star receiver Jordyn Tyson entering the NFL Draft leaves them without their leading pass catcher. Some expect Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley to take the reins of the Arizona State offense with Leavitt’s departure. Head coach Kenny Dillingham and his 14th-ranked portal class will prove to be too much for Baylor to leave Tempe with a win.
Week 6: Bye Week
Week 7 vs TCU: TCU 35, Baylor 30
Baylor’s 2026 matchup against TCU is the first meeting in Waco since Isaiah Hankins hit a walk-off kick to top the Horned Frogs 37-24 in 2024. Two years after that special night in Waco, the Bears have another opportunity to protect their home turf against their rivals.
TCU lost starting quarterback Josh Hoover to the reigning national champion Indiana, as well as leading receiver Eric McAlister and second-leading rusher Kevorian Barnes, who exhausted their eligibility. Former Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig, who set the Crimson’s program record with 52 career touchdowns and 6,074 yards passing, will lift TCU over Baylor in another classic that does not go the Bears’ way.
Week 8 at Kansas: Baylor 33, Kansas 14
Baylor has had Kansas’ number since the two teams started playing each other in 1971. The Bears are 18-4 all-time against the Jayhawks and are currently riding a 14-game winning streak dating back to 2010. This game will prove to fit the trend. Kansas will have to learn how to live without quarterback Jalon Daniels, who exhausted his eligibility. Bringing in former Kansas State running back Dylan Edwards will help on the ground, but Baylor will show the Jayhawks that “The Phog” remains only in Allen Fieldhouse.
Week 9 at UCF: Baylor 27, UCF 13
Baylor allowed only three points to UCF in 2025, the fewest points the Bears have allowed to a Big 12 opponent since joining the conference in 1996. The Knights did land former James Madison quarterback and Sun Belt Player of the Year Alonza Barnett III to replace Tayven Jackson. The loss of redshirt senior running back Myles Montgomery and receiver DJ Black to the portal will force UCF to rely on the passing game more heavily in 2026. The Knights will make it slightly closer of a game than the previous matchup being on their home field at the Acrisure Bounce House.
Week 10 vs Iowa State; Baylor 27, Iowa State 17
Iowa State is a shell of its 2025 roster with 24 players joining head coach Matt Campbell at Penn State. Some of the top names moving to Happy Valley include the Cyclones’ quarterback (Rocco Becht), top two rushers (Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III) and top three receivers (Brett Eskildsen, Chase Sowell and Benjamin Brahmer). Iowa State also lost its top three tacklers on defense. New head coach Jimmy Rogers will have a tall task ahead of him trying to rebuild the team after the mass exodus. Baylor will take care of business against a new Cyclone team.
Week 11 at BYU: BYU 42, Baylor 13
The last two meetings between Baylor and BYU have been classics. This will be the first time the Bears step foot in Provo, Utah, since their double-overtime loss in 2024. This game will not be like the previous two. The Cougars just missed out on an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff, finishing No. 12 in the rankings after a 34-7 loss to No. 4 Texas Tech. BYU ranked third in the Big 12 in scoring defense last season and does not look to miss a step, especially against Baylor in Provo.
Week 12 vs Texas Tech: Texas Tech 45, Baylor 10
Back-to-back difficult weeks for Baylor down the stretch. The BU-TT Bowl returns after a hiatus in 2025, and Texas Tech followed up their Big 12 championship season with the No. 8 transfer class in the country. There does not seem to be an answer for Joey McGuire’s team as they try to repeat as conference champions and make a run in the College Football Playoff. The Bears will get easily overwhelmed by the amount of talent on that Red Raider team and drop their final home game.
Week 13 at Houston: Houston 31, Baylor 16
Houston kept Baylor out of bowl eligibility in the final week of the 2025 season with a 31-24 win at McLane Stadium. The Coogs retained quarterback Connor Weigman and leading receiver Amare Thomas as well as most of the defense. Houston will play spoiler once again for the Bears. The Cougars will not keep Baylor out of a bowl game this time, but will spoil what started as a promising 6-3 season. The Bears will end the season on a three-game losing streak to finish the season with an improved 6-6 record despite exceeding expectations in the first half.
