By Jackson Posey | Sports Editor
Expectations are sky-high in Waco.
Redshirt senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson is back, along with eight other offensive starters. Offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, who took over the nation’s No. 101-ranked scoring offense in 2024, helped boost the unit into the top 20 in his first season.
Questions remain, however. Head coach Dave Aranda will call the defense for the second time after finishing 11th in Big 12 scoring defense last year. Secondary transfer Devin Turner and running back Dawson Pendergrass, both of whom were expected to play significant roles this fall, suffered season-ending injuries in the offseason.
With a blackout season opener against Auburn looming, here are some of the Lariat Sports Desk’s predictions for a high-stakes Baylor football season.
Foster Nicholas | Editor-in-Chief
Record: 10-2
Baylor’s window to compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff is wide open. With a bevy of redshirt seniors captained by Robertson, 2025 is the best chance the Bears have at playoff glory anytime in the near future.
Despite Pendegrass’ injury, the Bears are set up to have an explosive offense with improved confidence under Spavital. The defense has playmakers, and a couple of timely stops will win games.
With a loaded schedule, I expect Baylor to come out firing with a sweep of non-conference foes before hitting a few road bumps in conference play. It won’t be easy, but Aranda’s squad is tested and ready to turn heads.
Braden Murray | LTVN Executive Producer
Record: 9-3
I’ve historically been a hater when it came to predicting Baylor’s win total, but this year I believe the hype. If everything goes right, I could easily see the Bears making the playoffs. But I was a student when Baylor had playoff aspirations in the 2022 season, and we all know how that ended: a 30-15 loss to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Baylor was able to retain key contributors at several offensive positions this offseason. Robertson is one of the best starting quarterbacks in college football and could be a dark-horse Heisman contender. Redshirt sophomore Bryson Washington is back as running back, but the Bears are still looking for a backup after Pendergrass’ season-ending injury. Redshirt senior wideouts Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins highlight a promising receiving corps, which picked up some high-profile transfers.
For the second year in a row, though, Baylor had one of the worst defenses in the country, and I frankly don’t expect that much improvement on this side of the ball. But if the offense is as good as I expect it to be, the Bears’ lack of defense shouldn’t matter all that much. (I do expect redshirt junior Keaton Thomas to have another great year at inside linebacker.)
The first half of the schedule is much tougher than the second half. In their first six games, the Bears face three teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, including two coming off playoff berths. After playing Kansas State in week six, though, Baylor has a legitimate chance at winning out.
Jackson Posey | Sports Editor
Record: 9-3
Baylor faces a murderer’s row to open the season. After hosting an ascendant Auburn and heading up I-35 to play SMU, the Bears play their top three Big 12 opponents in the first four weeks of conference play. Things cool off considerably after that, with projected bottom-dwellers Cincinnati, UCF, Arizona and Houston on the slate.
This is the season everything has been building toward in Waco. Nine offensive starters return, including Robertson and Washington. The backfield duo is protected by four returning offensive linemen and flanked by the team’s top returning receivers, while Spavital is back to call the offense for a second season. Impact transfers litter the defense. The time is now.
After dropping one nonconference game, the Bears will drop two more early in Big 12 play, including a winnable contest against an overmatched opponent. (Let’s say Arizona State and TCU.) Through complicated tiebreakers, though, Baylor will bounce back and sneak into the conference title game, where a 30-point offensive showcase will be enough to secure an automatic qualifier for the first playoff berth in program history.
Jeffrey Cohen | Sports Writer
Record: 11-1
The Bears have to go through a gauntlet to start the season, but will take close wins over Auburn and SMU to start their campaign strong. Despite going into week four with a 3-0 record, the Arizona State offense will be too much, as sophomore quarterback Sam Leavitt will lead the charge and overwhelm the Baylor secondary.
Games six and seven will be the last real challenges in the regular season. While Kansas State’s defense could give the run game some issues with a strong linebacker core, Robertson and the pass game will take over, coming into Fort Worth on a heater and winning another nailbiter.
It should be smooth sailing after sweating out those close victories. The Bears close the season with five teams projected to be in the bottom half of the Big 12.
Marissa Essenburg | Sports Writer
Record: 9-3
After taking some early blows last season, Baylor closed out its Big 12 slate with momentum and confidence. If the Bears can carry that same energy into 2025, a return to the conference championship conversation isn’t out of reach. The path won’t be easy — programs like SMU and Arizona State will test them early — but if Baylor can clear those hurdles, this team has a chance to climb quickly.
If the pieces come together and the roster stays healthy, this season could echo Baylor’s 2021 run. The Bears return proven weapons on offense while welcoming new playmakers who’ve already drawn national attention. Redshirt senior Robertson will lead a group headlined by Alabama transfer Kobe Prentice and veteran targets Cameron and Hawkins, while Washington anchors the backfield. But as stacked as the offense looks, questions linger on the other side of the ball.
It’s no secret that Baylor’s defense is the ultimate wildcard, especially when it comes to pass pressure. Defense wins championships, and right now, that might be the missing piece. The unit is being retooled around Thomas, who anchored the unit with 114 stops last season. But it’s clear Baylor’s success will rise or fall with its defense.
This season feels defined by what-ifs, but one certainty is Washington. After a breakout freshman year, he has proven himself a force in the backfield. With Pendergrass out, Washington will step further into the spotlight — and if I’m betting my marbles on anyone, it’s him.
Dylan Fink | Sports Intern
Record: 11-1
Baylor has the opportunity to be a truly great team. It’s not unreasonable to believe this team could be remembered among the likes of 1980, 2014 and 2021. Aside from wins, there is one quality I believe this team will share with great Baylor teams of the past: losing a very winnable game.
The Sept. 27 game at Oklahoma State will be Baylor’s only regular-season loss this year. Just as Baylor lost to FCS San Jose State in 1980, mediocre West Virginia in 2014 and a bad TCU team in 2021. And despite expectations of dominance, 2025 will follow suit.
I believe that Baylor will win a lot of difficult games, win the conference championship, make a College Football Playoff run and do it all with unforgettable style. The 2025 team will be cemented in the history books as one of Baylor’s best. Fans will relish the success for years to come — but will linger on the sour taste of a robbed undefeated season after the ill-fated trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma.
