By Jackson Posey | Sports Writer
The nation’s eighth-toughest schedule is about to get even tougher.
Baylor is set to play its 11th ranked matchup of the season Saturday night when No. 6 Houston comes to town. The Cougars have won two in a row over the Bears since falling in their championship wake in 2021, including a 76-65 win last month at the Fertitta Center.
Last time, the matchup was overshadowed by the absence of Josh Ojianwuna, who sustained what was eventually ruled a season-ending knee injury two days before tipoff. What had been a highly-anticipated matchup fell flat, as the Bears committed 15 turnovers and struggled to create much offense.
The defense was a work in progress, too, as the coaching staff scrambled to replace Ojianwuna’s size down low. Freshman point guard Robert O. Wright III spent considerable time guarding Houston forward Joseph Tugler at the center of a 1-3-1 zone. Recently, the Bears have implemented several different defensive looks, including more man-to-man than they ran against the Cougars.
Since then, the offense has settled back in, only committing more than 12 turnovers once in six games. The Bears have also ramped up 3-point volume, averaging 24.3 attempts per game after a 9-for-15 showing in the first go-round.
Among every Division I team, Baylor has faced the single-hardest collection of defenses, per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Bringing in Houston’s elite defense — No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 3 by analytics — marks a return to the familiar after playing two of the Big 12’s bottom three defenses (Cincinnati and Oklahoma State) in the past 10 days.
At 18-1 in Big 12 play, Kelvin Sampson’s squad cruised to a Big 12 regular-season title. The Cougars currently sit a comfortable four games ahead of second place, with their one loss coming by a single point in overtime to Texas Tech.
Since beating Baylor, Houston has faced a gauntlet — including No. 13 Arizona, No. 8 Iowa State and No. 9 Texas Tech — and emerged 6-0, holding opponents to 61 points per contest. The Cougars are middling in total offensive output (No. 165 in scoring), though that’s largely due to pace: they’re ranked No. 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 360 (out of 364) in adjusted tempo.
Though Tuesday’s win over TCU likely secured the Bears a bid in the NCAA Tournament, beating Houston would provide a signature win for a team that has just one victory over a current AP Top 25 team: a double-overtime triumph over St. John’s in the Bahamas on Nov. 21. The Bears will have to overcome long odds, entering with just a 30% chance to win according to ESPN.
Tipoff is scheduled for 9 p.m. Saturday at the Foster Pavilion. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
