CFP poll reaction, prediction ahead of conference championship week

By Michael Haag | Sports Editor, George Schroeder | LTVN Executive Producer, Nate Smith | Managing Editor

The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings were unveiled Tuesday evening, and members of the Lariat along with Lariat TV News wanted to share their initial reactions along with who they see making it out of the upcoming conference championship weekend.

First, here are the top six teams in the CFP poll:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC
5. Ohio State
6. Alabama

Michael Haag | Sports Editor

Reaction:

This top six is of no surprise to me personally, as I along with many others expected this outcome following all of the wild upsets from this past weekend. It’s truly a solid list, and I don’t have any issues with it.

There’s definitely an argument to be made that No. 2 University of Michigan should be No. 1 over the University of Georgia, but I’m OK with it the way it is. The committee is most likely viewing the Bulldogs as defending national champions which is fair if that’s how it’s dealing with the one versus two spot.

All other programs fell in line, and everything looks solid with the top six.

My CFP prediction:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC

Spots 1-3 are CFP safe in my eyes. I don’t personally see a scenario where No. 5 Ohio State University or No. 6 University of Alabama jumps Georgia, Michigan or Texas Christian University. Those three schools are 12-0 and are playing in a conference championship game, something OSU and Alabama aren’t. There’s not a feasible way for the Buckeyes or Crimson Tide to jump any of the top three after sitting on the couch this week. Neither OSU or Bama’s resume trumps the undefeated top dogs.

But I am open to discussing the Buckeyes bumping out the Trojans at the four spot. It helps that USC lost in the regular season, so it’s easier to measure resumes in that head to head instance. If Michigan blows the gates off Purdue University this weekend and the Trojans lose, there’s a high chance the Buckeyes will be playoff bound.

George Schroeder | LTVN Executive Producer

Reaction:

The conference bias has won the day this season. TCU has fought an uphill battle since the first rankings were unveiled, and now that the last ones have been released, Michigan is getting the cold shoulder as well.

There is no good reason Michigan isn’t ranked No. 1 right now, unless the committee is trying to avoid a 1-ranked versus 4-ranked Michigan/Ohio State playoff game (which isn’t an acceptable reason). If you disagree, answer me this: had a No. 3 Georgia team beaten a No. 2 Alabama on Saturday, would they not move to No. 1? Yes, Michigan’s non-conference schedule isn’t good, but after boat racing the Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio for the first time in over 20 years, they should be on top.

Coming from a Baylor Bear myself, TCU has been disrespected by the committee since its first ranking at No. 7 a few weeks ago. The Frogs are lucky they are undefeated, because even a one-loss TCU (with the greatest strength of schedule out of all six playoff contenders) would be hurting in the conversation right now, while non-conference contenders Ohio State and Alabama lurk ready to pounce back into the big game.

My CFP prediction:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC

I’d flip Georgia and Michigan, but this is a prediction based on the committee, not necessarily what’s right. All four contenders should handle business in their conference championship games, with likely only a loss from USC opening the door for Ohio State. A Trojans loss and a Michigan loss would be Alabama’s only real path to Los Angeles. Should these four win their championship games, we will be getting a small taste of the 12-team playoffs based on the conference representation, and I’m loving it.

Nate Smith | LTVN Managing Editor

Reaction:

My gut reaction says that Michigan should be No. 1. After all, it just took the second ranked team in the country to the woodshed in what was supposed to be the game of the year. But Georgia has been doing that to everyone, all season long, in the best conference in college football. The Dawgs have four wins by three possessions or more over teams that are currently ranked in the top 25. Two of those wins were by 40 plus points over top 20 teams. That is consistent domination. Michigan has given some of its conference foes the same treatment, but most of those opponents weren’t of the same quality as the ones that Georgia beat. The Bulldogs have the most complete team in the country. I know that, you know that and the committee knows that. There really isn’t much of a reason to move them down a spot outside of recency bias.

Now that I’ve said my peace about the two best teams in the country, let’s move on to the luckiest team in the country, TCU. Objectively, TCU has had one of the more fun seasons we’ve seen in college football in a long time. An undefeated TCU absolutely deserves a spot in the CFP. But what about a TCU team that loses to No. 10 Kansas State University on Saturday? To me, that feels unclear at best.

The fighting hypnotoads have played a lot of close games with programs that playoff level squads shouldn’t be playing close games with. I understand what the computers say about strength of schedule when it comes to TCU. The Big 12 is a gauntlet, but not because it’s full of teams that play great football. The Big 12 is a grind because it has nine teams that play decent football, and Iowa State University is just there. TCU isn’t up to par with other playoff level teams when you consider the eye test, and the committee knows that. So if its luck runs out this weekend, be ready to expect the unexpected.

Not to give USC the short end of the stick, but Heisman Trophy front runner Caleb Williams is scorched Earth right now, so there’s no reason the Trojans should fall to No. 11 University of Utah again.

My CFP prediction:

1. Michigan
2. Georgia
3. USC
4. Alabama
5. TCU
6. OSU

Two-loss Alabama is done, right? Right? The committee has set precedent for rewarding teams for playing in conference championship games (see 2014). However, it’s never been the Tide who were on the wrong side of the bubble. If TCU puts up a dud, everyone’s favorite dynasty could backdoor its way into the CFP. The committee doesn’t want to see Ohio State play Michigan again. But it might want to see arguably the best quarterback and coach in the country take on the best defense. Did I mention that these are two of the biggest brands in the sport? Unfortunately that matters too.