Baylor women’s basketball faces a gauntlet in the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Bears will face No. 11 seed Nebraska in the first round for the right to play No. 3 seed Duke — assuming the heavily-favored Blue Devils can defend Cameron Indoor Stadium against No. 14 seed Charleston.
The Bears (24-8, 13-5 Big 12), who drew a No. 6 seed, will face the Cornhuskers (19-12, 7-11 Big Ten) in the first round Friday in Durham, N.C. The Huskers just knocked off Honorable Mention All-American Maggie Doogan and Richmond in the First Four.
The winner will likely face Duke (24-8, 16-2 ACC) in the second round. The Bears exorcised the Blue Devils 58-52 in Paris to open the 2025-26 season, led by 24 points from redshirt sophomore Taliah Scott in her Baylor debut.
An intense week of hoops awaits. The Lariat’s esteemed board of pundits make their picks below.
Marissa Essenburg | Sports Writer
Winner: Baylor
Baylor is my pick to come out of this pod, starting with a first-round win over Nebraska. The Bears have the talent, depth and experience to handle the opener, and the Big 12 has prepared them for the kind of physical game March always brings. With Scott’s scoring ability and Baylor’s toughness on both ends, the Bears do enough to move on.
That would set up a second-round matchup with Duke, and I think Baylor digs deep and gets it done again. The Bears already beat the Blue Devils to open the season, and while Duke has been playing some of its best basketball down the stretch, I still trust Baylor in that matchup. With the Sweet 16 on the line, the Bears lean on that experience, stay composed and find a way to punch their ticket to Sacramento.
Jackson Posey | Sports Editor
Winner: Duke
Baylor appears to be on its last legs. The Bears haven’t beaten a team with a winning conference record since Jan. 14 (Utah) and only have two ranked wins all season. They’re 5-5 since rattling off an eight-game win streak early in Big 12 play.
Baylor will narrowly escape a Nebraska team that punched above its weight in a 19-point victory over Richmond. The Cornhuskers lost all eight of their ranked matchups and finished the season 6-12 (albeit after a blazing 12-0 start), and simply don’t have the defensive chops to slow down Scott and the Bears.
One of Baylor’s ranked wins came against Duke in November, but the Blue Devils are a different team now. They shifted in in December: since Dec. 7, they’re 21-2, including winning the ACC’s regular season and tournament championships.
Ultimately, trajectories always matter in March. Duke forward Toby Fournier (17.3 points, 8.2 rebounds per game) and guard Ashlon Jackson (11.4 points, 4.4 assists) will prove too much for head coach Nicki Collen’s Bears, sending them home in the first weekend for the fourth time in five seasons.
Jeffrey Cohen | Sports Writer
Winner: Duke
It is hard to beat a good team twice. That will be a reality for Baylor when it faces off against Duke in the Round of 32. The Bears were able to upset the then-No. 7 Blue Devils in the season opener, but Baylor has been slipping during the final month of the season. Duke will be able to finally take care of business against the Bears and win by double digits.
The Baylor-Duke matchup means that the Bears defeat Nebraska and Duke beats Charleston. Even though the Bears are listed as 1.5-point underdogs as a No. 6 seed, they will be led by another 20-point performance from Scott. The Blue Devils will have no issue with Charleston and start building momentum for a serious run at the Final Four.
Dylan Fink | Sports Writer
Winner: Baylor
Vegas is once again proving that it does not watch women’s college basketball, as the Bears are underdogs going into their first-round matchup against No. 11 seed Nebraska.
Not only will Baylor cover the 1.5-point spread, the opening battle of this year’s championship pursuit will be a coaching masterclass from Collen. The former WNBA Coach of the Year will revive a team that missed its footing in a shocking first-round Big 12 Tournament loss, leading the Bears to a dominating 73-50 win over the Cornhuskers.
In the second round, Baylor will see a familiar face in No. 3 seed Duke. Having previously bested the Blue Devils in their season opener, the Bears will face a tall challenge. Beating a team twice is difficult, but not too difficult for the green and gold. The Bears will escape Cameron Indoor Stadium with a last-second buzzer-beater from Scott, taking Collen to her second Sweet 16 with the program.
