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    The Baylor Lariat
    Home»Sports»Football

    Sports Take: First-round CFP predictions, championship pick

    Dylan FinkBy Dylan FinkDecember 10, 2025Updated:December 13, 2025 Football No Comments4 Mins Read
    Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire watches play in the first half of a Big 12 Conference championship NCAA college football game against BYU Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
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    By Dylan Fink | Sports Writer

    The second and third weeks of December may be the most rollercoaster time of the year.

    The horrors and disdain that accompany the pitiful College Football Playoff selection committee’s decision on who makes the 12-team field cause national uproar year in and year out, as the conversations of who did and didn’t deserve to make the field rule exchanges on both social and the dinner table. The asinine selection week is then followed by the electrifying thrills of the first round of action, which sets the stage for the ever-tumultuous College Football Playoff.

    With the first-round matchups set and decided, here are my predictions for how each game of the first round will go.

    No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 James Madison — Ducks 49, Dukes 14

    While a 12-seeded upset by a G5 team against a college football blue blood would be electric, the Dukes don’t stand a chance. Oregon missed out on the Big Ten championship this year due to the record and prowess of Ohio State and a mid-season loss to Indiana. Still standing at 11-1, and as the only one-loss CFP team with a loss to a higher-seeded team, the Ducks are without a doubt the best team playing in the first round.

    No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Alabama — Sooners 28, Crimson Tide 17

    This is the most dominant Oklahoma team since the 2019 Sooners, which made the CFP led by future NFL superstars Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb. The Sooners will be facing off against arguably the most controversial team in the 12-team field in three-loss Alabama.

    The Crimson Tide may be the first-look favorite in this matchup, having already lost to Oklahoma earlier this year. Beating a team twice in one season is one of the hardest feats in college football this season. That will not be the case for Oklahoma.

    Alabama will be exposed for its fraudulent bid to the CFP as Oklahoma will make a dominant expression of its force over the SEC darling child on the national stage.

    No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — Green Wave 31, Rebels 28

    This matchup screams upset opportunity.

    Ole Miss, going into the playoff field head coach–less after losing Lane Kiffin to LSU earlier this month, is looking to prove something. Unfortunately, the Rebels will not prove much of anything against a Tulane team that found its stride at the right time in the conference championship game.

    Led by former BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff, Tulane has a prolific offense that will find a way to hang with the 11-1 SEC team.

    If Kiffin had stayed in Oxford, Miss., the story of this game would be completely different. Alas, without their notorious head coach, the Rebels have opened the door for Tulane to slip past them. While an Ole Miss loss will most likely set the program back for the next three to five years, this game will be the most exciting and most talked-about matchup of the first round.

    No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Miami — Aggies 35, Hurricanes 21

    A fire burns under Texas A&M. The favorites to win the SEC three weeks ago finished the regular season by not even making it to the conference championship game, poetically knocked out of contention by the rival Texas Longhorns.

    Miami, on the other hand, is not ready for the level of competition that lies ahead of its sought-after CFP run. Finding their way into the top 12 rankings by beating up a weakened ACC conference — and not even competing in the conference championship due to tiebreakers — the Hurricanes will not be able to weather the storm the Aggies will bring into the first round.

    Despite my own personal convictions that any Texas A&M athletic season could be filled with pain and misery, I do believe they will secure a CFP win to cap off a historic season.

    As the predicted winners move on to the second round against the four schools who have earned a bye, none of the first-round victors will make it to the CFP semifinals. Texas Tech will beat Oregon, Indiana will easily defeat Oklahoma, Tulane will be overwhelmed by Georgia and Texas A&M might struggle to score against Ohio State.

    The CFP championship game will be nothing more than a rematch of the Big 10 championship. This time around, Indiana will not find a victory over Ohio State. Ryan Day will cement himself as a college football great with back-to-back CFP championships.

    The College Football Playoff begins at 11 a.m. Dec. 20 between Texas A&M and Miami in College Station. The game will be broadcast on ABC.

    Alabama College Football Playoff Georgia Indiana James Madison Dukes Ohio State Oklahoma Ole Miss Rebels Oregon Texas A&M Texas Tech Tulane Green Wave
    Dylan Fink
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    Dylan Fink is a senior Religion Major on a Pre-Law Track from Abilene, Texas. He’s an overly passionate Red Sox fan who will be found playing pickup basketball any opportunity he can get. After graduating, Dylan plans to go to law school to chase his dream of a career in Sports Law.

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