By Elliott Nace | Assistant News Editor
In the summer of 1988, then-governor of Massachusetts Michael Dukakis held upward of a 17-point lead over his opponent, then-Vice President George H.W. Bush, in presidential election polls. But by Nov. 8 of that year, Bush had surged to the point of defeating Dukakis in a landslide 426-111 electoral victory.
Though many factors contributed to that outcome, one commonly cited tiebreaker was an advertisement run by the Bush campaign lampooning Dukakis for his extension of “weekend passes” to prisoners during his tenure as governor. The ad prominently featured the actions and likeness of convicted murderer and rapist William “Willie” Horton
“Despite a life sentence, Horton received 10 weekend passes from prison,” the advertisement said. “Horton fled, kidnapped a young couple, stabbing the man and repeatedly raping his girlfriend.”
The ad, which began airing in late September, is one of many examples of an “October surprise,” a revelation about a political candidate released late in the election cycle to try and tarnish their image or reputation.
Ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Texas Republicans and Democrats alike have had to navigate through October surprises of their own, ranging from sensational cheap shots to shifting policy positions.
Texas Attorney General and Republican nominee Ken Paxton first came under fire for his history of extramarital affairs and recently attracted scrutiny for a video where he can be seen partying in Dubai with U.S. fugitives on New Year’s Eve in 2024.
Controversy also plagued Texas State Representative and Democratic nominee James Talarico’s campaign early October following a nine-day absence from the campaign trail, prompting intense criticism from Republicans and the wide circulation of a claim that Talarico had received treatment for mental illness in Ohio.
Talarico returned to the public eye Oct. 9 to speak to voters at the Austin City Limits festival, with his campaign dispelling the rumors by attributing his absence to a severe case of the flu.
Dr. David Bridge, an associate professor of political science, said he views October surprises as generally partisan attacks on candidates’ character with minimal sway on independents, citing the late-stage jabs made at the end of the 2016 presidential election cycle.
“It’s not like someone was going to vote for Hillary Clinton, then the email thing came out and they said, ‘Oh, well now I’m a Trump supporter,’ or someone was a Trump supporter, and they saw the Access Hollywood tape and then they decided to vote for Hillary Clinton.
“In fact, I think the Access Hollywood tape is a really good stress test for October surprises,” Bridge continued. “If ever we were to see an October surprise really swing an election, I think it would have been the Access Hollywood tape. In hindsight, it really didn’t do much.”
Over the past 20 years, midterm elections have consistently favored the party lacking congressional majorities and an incumbent president. The 2026 political climate, according to political science chair Dr. Patrick Flavin, leans in the Democrats’ favor due to their “strong candidates” and President Donald Trump’s historically low approval rating.
“It seems like most forecasters are expecting the Democrats to at least take over the majority in the House, and … I think they’ve got a probably better than 50-50 shot at winning the Senate majority as well,” Flavin said. “Six months ago, [that] was not the case.”
Although more of a “September surprise,” the onset of billionaire Elon Musk’s $158 million contribution to the Senate election in Texas early last month firmly placed Republicans in the lead on campaign spending.
Texas, Flavin said, will be “ground zero” for observing the efficacy of last-minute spending, given that polls conducted as recently as Oct. 16 continue to place Talarico and Paxton within two points of one another, with a majority favoring the former.
“The question will be now, ‘How much can [this spending] change people’s opinions about Ken Paxton?’” Flavin said. “Instead, it’s probably more [about] trying to attack Talarico and pin him as too extreme for Texas, because it seems like voters are probably not changing their minds too much on Paxton, and we’re two weeks from Election Day.”
Certain policy-based attack advertisements akin to the ones aired against Dukakis remain relevant in the 2026 election cycle. According to an article published by the Dallas Morning News on Oct. 2, Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa has attempted to remove one of Gov. Greg Abbott’s ads for “falsely claiming she voted 40 times to raise taxes.”
The economy leads as the most important issue to American voters this fall. An Oct. 15 poll published by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago found that out of 1,119 surveyed adults, only 45% overall deemed immigration “one of the most important issues.” 85% placed the economy in this category.
“The big issue is going to be the economy, and that encompasses so much: grocery prices, jobs, salaries, healthcare benefits, gas prices,” Bridge said.
In a reversal from the 2024 presidential election, the issue of immigration, Flavin said, “has completely flipped in terms of its value to the two parties,” despite Trump’s previous gains with Latino voters living along the Mexican border.
Due to “widely perceived overreach” by United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he continued, border security has become a contentious campaign item for Republicans.
“Look at the ads … now it’s actually Democrats running ads about immigration, like Talarico, making it clear that that they’re for a secure border, but also wanting to rein in the excesses of ICE enforcement,” Flavin said.
An article published by The New York Times on Oct. 16 reported that Trump, anticipating a correlation between high gas prices and Republican struggles at the polls, signed an executive order exempting Russia from upcoming military sanctions to lower energy costs ahead of the elections.
“It’s very interesting that Joe Biden did the same thing that Trump is doing right now, trying to lower gas prices right before the election … to be able to say, ‘Hey, look, things are getting better and I just lowered them for you, and if you elect my party, we’ll continue that,’” Bridge said.
Polling during midterm election cycles, according to Flavin, has been more accurate than in general election years. He explained how Trump’s current unpopularity as an incumbent gives Democrats a solid chance of securing majorities in both chambers of Congress.
“In 2026, certainly here [in Texas] among some Republicans, that the polls are off, that of course could be the case, but I don’t think that the record points to big misses in midterm elections in the way that there [has] been an [underestimation] of Trump support in presidential elections,” Flavin said.
Bridge said he expects both parties to excite voters by “narrowing” their policy positions in the final weeks heading up to Nov. 3.
“I think that Democrats are going to push the economy more and I think Republicans are going to push Democrats’ stance on trans issues more, at least in Texas,” Bridge said.
