By Marissa Essenburg | Sports Writer
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correct an erroneous cutline.
The margin for error has evaporated.
With six games remaining in the regular season, all eyes are on No. 12 Baylor women’s basketball Thursday, with the Bears set to host No. 17 TCU in a matchup with significant Big 12 implications.
“There’s a lot of reasons why, in a close game, and we’ve played a lot of close games against TCU in the last year, a crowd can take you over the hump,” head coach Nicki Collen said on The Matt Mosley Show. “It starts with our students, and they showed up for our game on Saturday, which was amazing. But I think this is next-level.
“We’re now in this race. I’m calling it five games to a championship. And it starts Thursday with TCU. Do I want to win it because of what happened last year? Sure. But every team’s different, and I want this team to win it, and I want them to deserve to win it.”
After weeks of climbing in tandem at the top of the Big 12 standings, Baylor and TCU now enter Thursday’s matchup thinly separated, with Baylor (21–4, 10–2 Big 12) holding sole possession of the No. 1 spot after outlasting Arizona State on Saturday, while TCU (21–4, 9–3 Big 12) slipped to fourth following a one-point loss to Colorado on Sunday.
In college hoops, January teaches and February reveals. But for Baylor, revelations against TCU have been rare. The Bears hold a staggering 47–5 all-time record over the Horned Frogs, a dominance that stretched until Jan. 26, 2025, when the Horned Frogs snapped a 37-game losing streak against Baylor in Fort Worth.
Two years after inheriting a TCU program that finished 8–23, head coach Mark Campbell engineered one of the conference’s most dramatic turnarounds, leading the Horned Frogs to a sweep of the Big 12 regular-season and tournament championships and a run to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament.
The run saw the Horned Frogs edge Baylor twice in the same season for the first time in program history, with the two victories separated by a combined eight points — once in the regular-season finale and again in the Big 12 Tournament championship game.
TCU, like Baylor, enters Thursday’s matchup with a retooled roster backed by seasoned veterans. The Horned Frogs bolstered their backcourt with the addition of All-American point guard Olivia Miles, who chose to forego the WNBA Draft and return to college after graduating from Notre Dame, where she set the program record for triple-doubles and earned multiple All-ACC First Team honors.
Now in the Big 12, the graduate guard ranks third in the conference in scoring at 19.7 points per game — trailing Baylor’s Taliah Scott — and sits among the conference’s top three in assists, minutes and field-goal percentage
Alongside Miles, California transfer forward Marta Suarez anchors the interior with physical finishing and presence on the glass, while Oregon State transfer guard Donovyn Hunter adds another dynamic perimeter scorer. Together, the trio forms a three-headed attack that can score at all three levels and pressure defenses in space.
“[Miles] is an elite scorer, an elite passer, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone in the women’s game put the ball on time and target with her off hand as well as she does,” Collen said. “This is a really talented team. They’re elite offensively. [Campbell] does an elite job in the portal, and an elite job of getting a lot out of their best players.”
On the other side of the ball, Baylor counters with its own three-headed core in redshirt sophomore and the Big 12’s No. 2 leading scorer Taliah Scott and senior forwards Bella Fontleroy and Darianna Littlepage-Buggs, the conference’s leading rebounder. Entering the matchup ranked No. 1 in the country in 3-point defense and No. 1 in the Big 12 in blocks per game, defensive discipline has become the foundation of Baylor’s identity.
Baylor builds its offense inside-out. The Bears attack the paint off the dribble, crash the offensive glass and live at the free-throw line. When they establish position down low and win second-chance possessions early, the floor opens naturally — kick-outs come in rhythm, spacing feels deliberate and multiple scorers find clean looks without forcing action late in the clock.
The contrast of styles sharpens Thursday’s tension.
TCU thrives in space and ball-screen reads. Baylor thrives in structure and physicality. It’s a matchup that could tilt on turnover margin, execution in transition and which team asserts its tempo in the final 20 minutes.
When TCU forces pace, the floor opens. When Baylor controls the glass, it tightens.
“Our coaches say every day that we get to write our own destiny, so we’re trying to make deposits, be communicative and grow every chance that we get,” Fontleroy said. “It’s the difference between being conference champions or being up there and still being a high seed with a good opportunity in the conference tournament, but we want to win. At the end of the day, we want to win and be the best versions of ourselves.”
Six games out from the conference tournament, the Bears meet a timely test in a TCU team that could reshape the conference race.
The Bears will look for their 22nd win of the season against TCU at 6 p.m. Thursday at Foster Pavilion. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
