By Tolga Sahin | Staff Writer
Seven months before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats are staring at the most favorable Senate map in a decade. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber — and Texas’s races will have a say in whether it’ll be red or blue.
Affordability remains the top issue for voters heading into November. A March Emerson national poll found 34% of voters named the economy as their top concern, up four points from February.
The national environment favors Democrats. A March poll by The Argument found Trump’s approval at 40% with 58% disapproving — the worst mark of his second term — and Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 55% to 45% among likely voters. Midterms have historically punished the party in power, and rising gas prices, the war in Iran and a 38-day DHS shutdown have deepened the headwinds.
Dr. Mark Kelly, a clinical associate professor of economics, said the tariffs are compounding the cost-of-living crisis that defined the 2024 election.
“Maybe we’re not paying more in taxes,” Kelly said. “But we’re now paying in the form of month-over-month price increases that is becoming increasingly unsustainable for households.”
Dr. Patrick Flavin, chair of the political science department, said the connection between economic conditions and midterm outcomes is well-established in political science research — and that Trump’s vulnerability on the issue is growing.
“If there’s sort of one predominant thing that’s on voters’ minds above all, it’s the economy,” Flavin said. “And that’s usually felt in terms of the prices that they’re paying when they go to the grocery store.”
For the Texas Senate seats, Republican Sen. John Cornyn is in a primary runoff against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26. Cornyn led the March 3 primary 43% to 41%, but neither cleared the majority threshold. Trump has not endorsed either candidate.
Democrats have not won statewide in Texas since 1994. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico won his party’s nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. A March Impact Research poll showed Talarico leading Cornyn 43% to 41% and Paxton 44% to 43% among likely voters.
Talarico attacked both Republicans on corruption during a March 2026 appearance on The Bulwark podcast.
“Ken Paxton was impeached for using his public office to enrich his donors,” Talarico said. “And that’s exactly what John Cornyn does at the biggest scale.”
Paxton linked his candidacy to the SAVE America Act in a March 5 post on X, offering to drop out only if the Senate eliminates the filibuster.
“The SAVE America Act is the most important bill the U.S. Senate could ever pass,” Paxton said. “John Cornyn is a coward.”
Texas would be the 52nd seat Democrats win — a result that would signal a full-scale wave.
Eight other races in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, Nebraska, Georgia and Michigan will decide the Senate majority.
Democrats’ clearest path runs through Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska while holding Georgia and Michigan. If Democrats win those four pickups and defend their own seats, the chamber flips at 51 — the minimum needed to overcome Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Texas and Iowa offer insurance but remain uphill. Major independent candidates in Nebraska, Montana and Idaho may open a new page amid years of political polarization. These battles for Senate seats will decide whether Democrats will flip the Senate for the first time since 2020.
