Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns for President as the presumptive Democratic candidate during an event at West Allis Central High School on Tuesday, July 23, 2024, in West Allis, Wis. (AP Photo/Kayla Wolf)
The landscape of the 2024 presidential election is remade with each new development, from an attempted assassination, to an incumbent relinquishing his reelection effort and a striking, youth-oriented campaign. The community of Baylor experts and activists weighed in on the election’s historic nature and what comes next.
Donald Trump survives assassination attemptMerri Cambo, left, of Saxonburg, Pa., and her friend, Jane Wesolosky, of Buffalo, Pa., react as the funeral procession for Corey Comperatore passes by, Friday, July 19, 2024, in Sarver, Pa. Comperatore, a former fire chief, was shot and killed while attending a weekend rally for former President Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
On July 13, former president Donald Trump sustained a bullet wound to the ear after a would-be assassin opened fire at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. One rally-goer was killed, and two more were injured before the sniper was taken out by Secret Service agents.
Lorena sophomore Jeziah Cherian, chairman of College Republicans at Baylor, called the event “shocking,” and said it strengthened his preexisting support for the former president.
“That it came to that level, where we had the Republican frontrunner and the potential president of the United States be targeted like that truly was shocking to all of us,” Cherian said. “I think it just goes to show that we need to tone down the political rhetoric in this country right now and just call for calm.”
Presidential assassination attempts, however appalling, are not a reliable indicator of election outcomes, according to Dr. Bob Elder, associate professor of history at Baylor. Theodore Roosevelt was shot, survived, and lost the 1912 election to Woodrow Wilson. Gerald Ford did not win reelection after surviving two assassination attempts within the span of two weeks in 1975. The attempt on Ronald Reagan’s life shortly after his first inauguration in 1981 likely had little effect on his reelection campaign three years later, though it boosted his approval ratings at the time, Elder said.
“I think one difference is that because it happened in the middle of an election, and because Trump is so polarizing, I think that it probably deepened the attachment of people who were already going to vote for Trump to him, and it’s not clear that it really changed anybody’s mind,” Elder said.
Elder said the shooter, Thomas Crooks, fits into the pattern of past culprits: “mentally disturbed” and “stirred up by political rhetoric.”
“The difference today to other times that this has happened is that we are so used to a news cycle where yesterday’s news is old,” Elder said. “Three months to the election is like a lifetime, and it really does seem like because of how crazy the news cycle is, the [attempted] assassination has just become one part of this crazy, two-week period where we had another historic thing happen.”
Biden out, Harris in
On July 21, President Biden, 81, announced he would not seek reelection. Baylor associate professor of political science Dr. Dave Bridge called the decision highly unusual, the most recent incumbent to drop from the race being Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Bridge teaches Campaigns and Elections, a political science course that analyzes the role of the party and interest group on politics. He said he believes Biden’s decision is more concerned with the success of the Democratic Party than a selfless act of patriotism.
“I think Biden wants Trump to lose,” Bridge said. “I speculate that recently, he concluded that he wants Trump to lose even more than he himself wants to win, and he probably took the pulse of the party and decided that he was not the best candidate to defeat Trump.”
NBC News reported President Biden polling even with Donald Trump after the June 27 debate and before the assassination attempt.
Enter presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
The 59-year-old Harris harnessed Generation Z guerilla marketing as her campaign capitalized off TikTok memes surrounding the singer Charli XCX and her album, “Brat,” in an appeal to young voters.
Elgin, Okla., senior Bee Matthey, president of College Democrats at Baylor, said the memes are funny and the “cherry on top.” Matthey said it feels much more energizing to vote now than before Biden dropped from the race.
“There’s no world where I wouldn’t vote for Harris — because of various reasons — but it is definitely super funny to come across my feed and then I can send it to my friends,” Matthey said.
When a candidate messages so strongly to a demographic, such as Gen Z and the younger Gen Alpha, Matthey said, it’s important that it comes from a place of care and a desire to actually serve that demographic through policy and action.
“Gen Z is the biggest population right now that doesn’t vote, and if you’re trying to get them involved in voting, then you should try to be interested in what they’re interested in,” Matthey said. “I think it shows a lot of care for the population that she’s trying to interact with, and I think it’s the first campaign to actually care about Gen Z and to show that they are actively trying to get Gen Z to vote.”
With less than four months until the November election, the race is a fundamentally different one than it was just this spring. Trump, at 78 years old, must reckon with his status as the oldest presidential nominee in American history after making President Biden’s age and cognitive ability a key criticism.
“I think in playing defense, Trump’s going to have a new, big problem on his hands that he didn’t have with Joe Biden,” Bridge said.
What comes next?
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) begins on Aug.19 and ends on Aug. 22. Political conventions tend to follow the same itinerary every year, as big names and party officials give speeches and a candidate is nominated for the general election.
This year’s DNC will look a bit different, Bridge said.
“The way the rules work now in the Democratic Party, there are delegates who have been elected in the states and the territories, and they are pledged, so they have to vote for the person who they were sent to the convention to vote for,” Bridge said. “So that would have been Joe Biden, but now that Biden is no longer in the race, they all become what are called free agents, so they can vote for whoever they want.”
Harris is the presumptive nominee, as she has gained the necessary delegates for nomination and amassed endorsements from high-profile democrats. Whether her late entry to the race will be an advantage or a hindrance remains to be seen, as does her vice presidential pick.
Election Day is Nov. 5, and Baylor students, faculty and staff have options when it comes to how and when to vote. Those with permanent residence in McLennan County may find it convenient to vote at the Hurd Welcome Center on campus, just one of many polling locations in Waco. The window for early voting is Oct. 21 to Nov. 1.
Oct. 25 is the last day to apply for a mail-in ballot if your permanent residence is not in McLennan County and you can’t make it home for Election Day. Your county of residence must receive your application by that date.
Emma Weidmann is a senior English major from San Antonio, with minors in News-Editorial and French. She loves writing about new albums and listening to live music. After graduating, she hopes to work in journalism.
