By Lariat Sports Desk
The stage is set and the cards are on the table as the 2024 NCAA football season is already underway. With Week 0 in the rearview mirror, Big 12 football on the Brazos is on deck. Here are some of the Lariat Sports Desk’s predictions for the Baylor football in a make or break season.
Foster Nicholas | Sports Editor
Record: 4-8
Why: While I can undoubtedly say there has been a change in culture and focus on winning in Waco, preseason storylines have been all too inconsistent. With the perfect storm, Baylor football could easily be a Big 12 sweetheart, but there are too many question marks to ignore. From standing on the sidelines watching the team practice in the months working up to the season, the desire to win is tangible and the intensity surrounding every drill is high.
Yet, given a schedule that could quickly spiral into an eight-game losing streak, betting on the team to stray away from old habits in the eye of failure and trap games is a risky wager. Chemistry looks to be higher than ever, but from a pure talent perspective, the drop off is incredibly steep when looking back at Aranda’s lone winning season. I’m quite high on Baylor’s receiver room due killer speed and a plethora of experience. But, trusting a quarterback who has never excelled at constantly competing 15-to-20-yard passes, let alone deep downfield passes, could cap the room’s potential.
I need to temper expectations when digging deeper into a defense without too many noteworthy playmakers and an offensive line that could give the entire offensive scheme fits. Don’t get me wrong– I’m rooting for Dave Aranda. A change at the top would only further the team’s rise to relevance, but until I see some sort of consistency that doesn’t claim this team could compete with those of Baylor’s past, I will quietly recognize those players who are trying to turn the ship around.
Jackson Posey | Sports Writer
Record: 6-6
Why: I have beachfront property in Hewitt, Texas to sell anyone professing certainty on how this season will go. After an offseason of significant turnover – including new play-callers on both sides of the ball and a new starting quarterback – everything from 3-9 to 8-4 is on the table. But anything more vigorous than last season’s listless 1-7 home record would feel like a major improvement.
And there are reasons for optimism. The Bears return 16 starters from a team that ranked among the youngest in the nation, including a high-upside secondary. New offensive coordinator Jake Spavital’s Air Raid-style system should mesh well with a loaded stable of skill position players, including several returners and transfer wide receiver Ashtyn Hawkins. The scheme and personnel changes will hit hardest on the offensive line, which will take time to gel after bringing in a half-dozen transfers.
If everything breaks right, the Bears could compete with the class of the Big 12 – but if they stumble out of the gates, this could be the end of the Dave Aranda era in Waco. Don’t touch the betting line, but bank on some improvement under Aranda’s revamped regime.
Grant Morrison | Sports Writer
Record: 7-5
Why: This may seem ambitious, but I think Baylor has the potential to more than double their win total from last year. It’s not the easiest schedule in the Big 12— it features away games at brutal environments like Utah, Colorado, Texas Tech and West Virginia. Last year’s eight games at McLane looked like an opportunity to establish a culture of home field dominance, but that didn’t pan out. It’s been 674 days since Baylor beat an FBS opponent at home, and their first opportunity won’t come until September 14th against Air Force in a rematch of 2022’s Armed Forces Bowl.
But this team is markedly different from the one that took a 30-15 beating at their rival’s stadium at 13 degrees Fahrenheit. It’s certainly not the anemic offense that struggled to reach the end zone for most of last season. The 2024 Baylor Bears have been galvanized by a fresh, but highly experienced coaching staff, an exciting new offensive scheme and a locker room of new and returning players that are hungrier than ever before. There’s nowhere to go but up for this team, and there is a ridiculous amount of potential. New starting quarterback Dequan Finn was responsible for over 3,000 total yards and 27 touchdowns in 2023 at Toledo. Junior running back Richard Reese is two years removed from more than a thousand yards from scrimmage as a true freshman. The receiving corp is explosive, experienced and expected to make a serious leap this year.
This team is going to be better because it doesn’t have any other options. The players don’t want to be the laughing stock of Big 12 Media Day. The athletic program doesn’t want to fire another head coach. It’s do or die for Dave Aranda this year, and I think this team can rise to the occasion.
Nate Maki | Sports Writer
Record: 5-7
Why: As much as I’d love to look at the bright side, I can’t just pretend last season didn’t happen. That being said, the Bears have made a lot of improvements. There’s a lot of opportunity for Baylor to be better this year, and I would love to be proven wrong. If the offensive line has really improved as much as they claim, then the green and gold have some good chances early in the schedule against teams like Tarleton State and Air Force. However, I just can’t see a dominant O-line like some would hope.
The offense is somewhat of a toss-up. On one hand, the new Air Raid scheme combined with players like fifth-year senior quarterback Dequan Finn could quickly build momentum and go big, but that’s a hopeful perspective. More likely, the team’s lack of experience in this offense will choke them out, and big-name players like Finn won’t be able to pick up the slack. The potential is undoubtedly there, but this group needs more experience and more time before they can really put it together.
In the same vein, the defense is unprepared. Even if they’re making the right improvements in practice, I don’t think they’ll be consistent enough to shut down those Big 12 offenses. Personally, I just can’t get on board until this group really gets a chance to prove themselves this season. Baylor has the potential to take the leap, but I think they still have a long way to go before they can really compete.
Braden Murray | LTVN Sports Director
Record: 5-7
Why: I would love to be able to predict a winning record for the Bears, but I just can’t bring myself to do that. During the offseason the coaching staff underwent a massive overhaul, with seven new position coaches joining the team for 2024. Jake Spavital took over the offensive coordinator role, and Dave Aranda assumed defensive play-calling responsibilities.
Baylor even has a new starting quarterback, sixth-year senior Dequan Finn, who was the 2023 Mid-American Conference MVP with Toledo. Finn brings a dynamic running ability that Baylor has sorely missed at the quarterback position, which could be needed if the offensive line is not vastly improved. The wide receiver room could be among the fastest in the nation and Texas State fifth year senior transfer Ashtyn Hawkins only improves a talented position group.
Baylor’s defense was among the worst in the nation and certainly in the Big 12, in virtually all aspects. The defense will need to drastically improve, if they want to be competitive in the new-look Big 12. Sixth-year senior linebackers Garmon Randolph and Matt Jones should provide valuable experience at that position. Sophomore cornerback Caden Jenkins was great in his first season and is generating considerable buzz ahead of his second.
This much change takes time, and we could see massive growing pains early in the season. I think it might take another season until Baylor is ready to compete in this Big 12. I would love nothing more than to be proved wrong for both Baylor fans’ sake and Dave Aranda’s, as another losing season could cost him his job.
